The Super El Ni˜no & The Caribbean
2026 is set to be one of the hottest years on record! Consider that sea ice had the smallest winter peak this last winter and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are already very high since April! According to the NOAA NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, We are currently on El Niño Watch.The El Niño started on June 11 and we expect it to strengthen to become the Super El Niño later this year. The El Niño is expected to end in the winter of next year!
What does this mean?
According to the Weather Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), we will likely see a strong El Niño compared to other years. This will likely be a Super El Niño, where ocean temperatures are about 2ºC above average!
The El Niño is the positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is where a patch of surface water in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific either warms or cools. When it warms, that’s the El Niño. These are naturally occurring events that happen twice or three times a decade, but they are occurring on a warmer frame due to anthropogenic climate change. This means that it will be hotter all over the world due to extra heat from the Pacific Ocean!
What does that mean for us in the Caribbean?
Sea Ice is not forming enough in the winter and hot water expands! Combine expanding hot water with melted ice and we expect global sea levels to rise. What does that mean for us? Probably more flooding.
Heatwaves can happen in the ocean and land too!
On in the ocean, corals really struggled during the last El Niño in 2023. Their health is at risk again. Along with this, with more marine heatwaves, we should expect other marine animals to suffer and possibly migrate to cooler spaces. Not great for fisheries.
For heatwaves on land, public health of people and animals will be at risk with extreme heat. We should expect more sleepless nights, heat strokes risk and disease outbreaks (think COVID 19). Power outages are very likely!
And there’s the rain or rather, the lack of rain. They’re predicting a very dry season.
This could lead to agricultural issues for crops that need humidity and rain to thrive in the fall and winter months.
There’s also a chance that we experience some droughts!
And then with Saharan dust, there will be wildfire risks! Glass and paper in pine forests and the bush may be more likely to catch on fire. Organizing community clean ups in these areas may be a great idea!
A good thing about El Niño events is that they bring lower hurricane activity to the Atlantic. For 2026, they have already predicted a below average hurricane season. But that’s still 3 to 6 possible hurricanes and it only takes one to make a devastating impact. So don’t your guard down!
Conclusion
I’m sorry to say, it’ll be a hot girl summer, fall and winter this year.
The beach might not be refreshing since the ocean temperatures will be hot!
It is a good time to get your sunscreen together and find tips to survive heatwaves.
I’m afraid the Super El Niño is coming.
Sources
A Super El Niño Is Increasingly Likely, And It Could Be Record Strong. https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2026-05-07-super-el-nino-forecast-may2026
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
What previous Super El Niños can tell us about the next one. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/19/climate/super-el-nino-impacts-history-climate
Rare weather pattern ‘Godzilla’ El Niño could make next year hottest on record. https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/extreme-weather-warning-godzilla-el-nino-b2974479.html?utm_source=cbnewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2026-05-27&utm_campaign=DeBriefed+Trump-Xi+talk+energy+Supercharged+El+Ni%C3%B1o+India+s+first+heat+lounges+
Scientists warn El Niño could intensify climate extremes in 2026. https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/05/12/scientists-warn-el-nino-could-intensify-climate-extremes-in-2026/?utm_source=cbnewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2026-05-27&utm_campaign=DeBriefed+Trump-Xi+talk+energy+Supercharged+El+Ni%C3%B1o+India+s+first+heat+lounges+
